Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 41.447634 48.935730 57.134361 66.743755 77.662768 89.648398 103.763200
2024-12-22 27.534040 36.690083 47.712522 61.818829 79.238744 99.884770 126.028256
2024-12-29 22.154715 32.357333 45.537399 63.508738 87.032789 116.408674 155.444457
2025-01-05 17.724719 28.099663 42.360914 62.894594 91.120157 127.915175 178.753337
2025-01-12 15.891816 26.953706 42.945552 66.990410 101.329527 147.597165 213.439067
2025-01-19 12.435693 22.751688 38.521301 63.374395 100.345635 151.921116 227.603632
2025-01-26 11.056126 21.515697 38.239004 65.593541 107.597838 167.778259 258.168599
2025-02-02 10.373790 21.295631 39.442169 70.070466 118.361415 189.086292 297.354572
2025-02-09 9.328245 20.255640 39.151984 72.089242 125.431884 205.299419 329.904064
2025-02-16 8.288144 19.042300 38.393099 73.204244 131.066078 219.556138 360.129660
2025-02-23 7.238979 17.626140 37.087684 73.224791 134.859287 231.103461 386.712953
2025-03-02 6.078689 15.773239 34.749780 71.198095 135.077353 237.022390 404.889072
2025-03-09 5.231427 14.533850 33.606797 71.555680 139.955448 251.567365 438.784653
2025-03-16 3.971897 12.093484 29.796752 66.670404 135.558559 251.171589 449.652568
2025-03-23 3.527048 11.475148 29.572381 68.494322 143.032436 270.553532 492.947770
2025-03-30 2.958548 10.392502 28.181390 67.841989 145.910759 282.322838 524.342781
2025-04-06 2.812831 10.415236 29.230786 72.203066 158.344627 310.966470 584.799998
2025-04-13 2.188710 8.892804 26.484778 68.353132 154.907485 311.874550 598.820933
2025-04-20 1.993867 8.611579 26.647464 70.716104 163.606721 334.536543 650.660092
2025-04-27 1.931617 8.744212 27.854107 75.480683 177.338997 366.809553 720.247588
2025-05-04 1.754859 8.441336 27.900750 77.628130 185.935212 390.141076 775.158025
2025-05-11 1.559645 8.013142 27.549408 78.813934 192.624606 410.250910 825.146647
2025-05-18 1.348262 7.452239 26.743789 78.835784 196.874297 425.989833 867.943104